83% of Homeowners Unphased by Cooling Property Values

New research from eXp UK, the platform for personal estate agents, reveals that homeowners are largely unconcerned about cooling house prices, caring more about having a home to call their own than sitting on a profitable investment.

The platform surveyed 1,094 UK homeowners to find out how they feel about cooling house prices and the impact they have on the market value of their home.

The survey reveals that, before buying their home, 89% of current homeowners believed it was important to get their foot on the housing ladder.

When asked why getting a foot on the ladder was so important, half (51%) say it was simply about being able to own a home of their own, free from landlords and rental market restrictions.

16% say they wanted to own in order to set the foundations for building a family, and just 12% say that making an investment to generate profit when later selling was their main drive for buying.

In reference to the current housing market, homeowners were asked whether they believe cooling house prices, and the subsequent return to normal levels following the extraordinary pandemic boom, are a good thing. In response, 83% say yes.

When asked whether they are worried that current cooling market conditions could snowball into a house price crash, only 27% report having any sort of concern, while 49% say they feel indifferent about the matter.

Despite today’s cooling prices, homeowners have faith in the long-term health of the UK market, with 86% saying they remain confident that when they come to sell their home, they will receive more money than they paid for it.

But even if their resale does achieve less money, owners remain, by and large, unconcerned.

86% of homeowners say that they will have no regrets if their home eventually sells for less money than they paid for it; and 72% say that, even if they had known before buying that they would lose money when reselling, it would not have prevented them from making the purchase.

Source: Property Notify

Pace of Monthly House Price Decline Slows as Market Continues to Weather the Economic Storm

UK house prices fell further in September, edging down by -0.4% on a monthly basis.

This was a sixth consecutive monthly fall, though the pace of decline slowed markedly compared to August (-1.8%).

The average home now costs £278,601, a drop of around £1,200 since last month.

On an annual basis prices are down by -4.7%, largely unchanged from -4.5% in August.

Nonetheless they remain some £39,400 higher than in March 2020, such was the extraordinary growth seen during the pandemic, said Kim Kinnaird, Director, Halifax Mortgages.

Kinnaird continued, activity levels continue to look subdued compared to recent years, with industry data showing lower levels of new instructions to sell homes and agreed sales.

Borrowing costs are the primary factor, given the impact of higher interest rates on mortgage affordability.

Against this backdrop, homeowners inevitably become more realistic about their target selling price, reflecting what has increasingly become a buyer’s market.

However, with Base Rate now likely to be at or around its peak, we are seeing fixed rate mortgages deals ease back from recent highs.

Wage growth also remains strong, which has helped with affordability, with the house price to income ratio now at its lowest level since June 2020 (6.2 in September vs 6.3 in August).

Many economists and financial markets predict that Base Rate will remain higher for longer, with any significant cuts appearing unlikely until inflation gets closer to the Bank of England’s 2% target.

Overall, these factors are likely to keep mortgage rates elevated in comparison to recent years, constraining buyer demand and putting downward pressure on house prices into next year.

House price resilience despite rate increases

The Bank of England’s decision to hold Base Rate at 5.25% at the most recent MPC meeting ended a run of 14 consecutive increases.

This was the fastest monetary policy tightening cycle in recent history.

House prices have proven more resilient than expected over that period, despite higher mortgage rates suppressing market activity.

While property prices are now around £14,000 below the August 2022 peak, they remain +1.0% above the level seen in December 2021 (£275,889), the month when Base Rate first edged up from 0.1% to 0.25%.

However, as we have highlighted previously, there is often a lag-effect between rate increases and the full impact of higher mortgage costs on house prices.

Source: Property Notify

Interest Rates Frozen for First Time in 15 Months: Have Mortgage Rates Now Peaked?

Since the Bank of England base rate started making large jumps around the middle of last year, mortgage rates have increased significantly from the historic lows that borrowers had enjoyed since early 2015, when the average two-year fixed rate dropped below 2% and the average five-year fixed went sub-3%.

By the autumn of 2021, average two-year fixed mortgages were just 1.2%, with some borrowers able to access a rate of below 1%, and average five-year fixed rates were less than 1.3%.

But in December 2021, the bank rate started to rise from its all-time low of 0.1% and mortgage interest rates followed suit, as is the norm.

Some mortgage rates spiked to over 6% following the Conservatives’ disastrous mini budget last September, although they did start to fall again once Rishi Sunak took over as leader.

By the time we entered 2023, the average two-year fixed mortgage rate was just under 5.8% and the Bank Rate stood at 3.5% with experts predicting further increases before the summer.

What’s happened to mortgage interest rates so far this year?

At the start of the year, even with the bank rate rising and inflation still high, mortgage rates continued their steady decline from the November 2022 peak.

In February, two and five-year fixed rates were 5.44% and 5.2% respectively, then in March those figures dropped to 5.32% and 5%.

But by May, as repeated base rate increases failed to have an impact on inflation, lenders began to backtrack and in mid-June, the average two-year fixed mortgage rate rose to over 6%.

Individual rates have started to come down again

However, that is just an average figure, and the good news is that individual rates have started to come down again, mainly thanks to significant falls in the rate of inflation, which is now expected to reduce to 5% by the end of this year and then reach the target of 2% by the start of 2025.

In July, HSBC became the first high street lender to announce that it was making some cuts to its fixed-rate products, with other major lenders – including Nationwide, Barclays and Virgin Money – following suit over the next month.

As it stands in September, first-time buyers can access five-year fixed rates at well under 6% and two or three-year fixed products at slightly above 6%.

Five year rates are lower than two-year rates

It’s worth noting that it’s fairly unusual for a five-year rate to be lower than a two-year one, as has been the case for around a year now.

This is the strongest possible indication that lenders do believe the base rate will fall significantly in the future.

Despite a 14th consecutive increase at the start of August, to 5.25% we have now, as of 21 September, seen the first freeze in 15 months.

Capital Economics had previously predicted that rates would peak at 5.5%, lower than previously forecast and so perhaps this will never materialised.

This is likely to be followed by continuing falls in mortgage rates, which is good news for borrowers.

Speak to a broker

There are so many variables to consider, that if you want to buy or need to remortgage this year, we think it’s well worth talking to a mortgage broker sooner rather than later, allowing at least six months to go through the remortgage process.

Mortgage applications can be held up if documents are missing, so make sure you gather what is required and provide them with all the necessary information as soon as possible.

Source: Property Notify

Some Very Welcome Rate Relief for A Resilient Housing Market

Before noon’s announcement from the Bank of England on interest rates, I was all ready to write that we should not regard a rise in official interest rates from 5.25% to 5.5% – as generally expected ahead of the decision – as bad news.

Such a rise was priced into mortgage markets, and mortgage rates had been edging down.

As everybody now knows, there was no such rise, the Bank opting to leave its rate unchanged at 5.25%, on a 5-4 vote, thus breaking a sequence which had seen 14 rate rises in a row.

This was not anticipated by the markets, even in the minutes ticking up to the announcement, so this paved the way for mortgage rates to come down even further.

It was good news.

This decision completed one of the strangest 12-month periods for official interest rates, mortgage rates and the housing market.

It is now almost exactly 12 months since Liz Truss, the very short-term prime minister, and her even shorter-term chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, almost blew a hole in the housing market with the oddest and most irresponsible “mini” budget in modern history.

She has been defending it, though most people will remember it differently.

Two things survived from it.

The previously planned increase in National Insurance contributions for employers and employees, intended to have been renamed as the health and social care levy by now, was scrapped and has not been revived.

For the housing market there was the minor positive of a reduction in stamp duty, by raising the threshold at which it is paid (except for second homebuyers and most landlords) to £250,000, accompanied by an increase in the nil-rate band for first-time buyers from £300,000 to £425,000.

This was temporary, but quite long lasting.

The main threshold will revert to £125,000 and the first-time buyer band to £300,000 after March 31 2025, by which time we may have had a change of government.

This positive was, of course, swept away by the huge negative of surge in bond yields, a slump in sterling to a record low against the dollar, a crisis for pension funds and massive dislocation in the mortgage market, with hundreds of products withdrawn overnight, as markets feared that Bank Rate would have to rise as high as 7%.

This was the first realisation for most people that something dramatic had changed.

Years of stretched affordability when house prices were measured against earnings were compensated for by ultra-low mortgage rates.

When those mortgage rates started to rise dramatically, things changed.

Affordability was suddenly under enormous pressure.

Everybody reading this will know that housing activity and prices turned down quickly in the aftermath of that mini budget and, by and large, things have stayed down.

Prices are down by 4% to 5% on average.

Source: Property Notify

Buy-To-Let Rental Incomes have Increased by 8.7% Despite Rising Costs & Government Pressure

Landlords in England & Wales have seen their rental portfolio income increase by 8.7% in the past year.

That’s according to new research from London lettings and estate agent, Benham and Reeves, who compared the average rental portfolio income, based on portfolio size and rent values, in Q1 2022 with that in Q1 2023.

Previous research from Benham and Reeves recently reveals that throughout the nation, portfolio sizes have fallen by -5.6% year-on-year, dropping from 9.1 properties to 8.6.

However, despite smaller portfolios, the average rent value has increased by 15.1%, rising from £7,396 in Q1 2022 to £8,510 in Q1 2023.

As such, the average landlord’s annual portfolio income has increased from £67,304 to £73,186 over the same time period, an increase of £5,882 or 8.7%.

On a regional level, the biggest income increase has been seen in London. The average portfolio size in the capital has shown the slightest of declines from 7.6 properties to 7.5, but the average rental income per property has soared by 34.7% to £13,095.

This means that the annual rental income generated from the average buy-to-let portfolio within the capital has increased by 32.9% and now sits at £98,213.

Despite falling rent values leading to a -7.7% decrease in the income per property, landlords in the East of England have enjoyed a strong portfolio income increase of 32.7%.

This is due to a huge increase in portfolio size, rising 6.4 properties to 9.2 in the past year.

Portfolio income has also increased in the South East (27.8%), Yorkshire & Humber (16.4%), the South West (15.5%), North West (5.5%), and North East (0.6%).

In three regions, however, landlords have seen their portfolio income decrease over the past year.

Wales has seen the most significant decrease of -19.2%.

This comes despite the average rental income per property seeing the biggest increase of all regions (41.5%), and is therefore being driven by the average portfolio size falling from 12.6 properties to 7.2.

The East Midlands has seen portfolio income fall by -11.1%, once again driven by a shrinking average portfolio size, down from 11.8 in 2022 to 7.8 in 2023.

The West Midlands has seen portfolios increase from 8.5 to 9.2, but a drop of -8.7% in income per property means that portfolio income has fallen by -1.2%.

Source: Property Notify

Average UK Rental Prices Continue to Rise Across All Regions

New data from HomeLet has revealed that average UK rental prices have continued to rise across all regions, with the average rent, excluding London, now £1,051 per month (PCM), up 1.4%, while prices in the capital have continued to soar to a new high of £2,145 PCM, up 1.7%.

The continued rise in rental prices comes at a time when there has been a record increase in mortgage interest rates.

The current average five-year rate is now 6.19%, compared to 2.64% in December 2021, and as a result, many first-time buyers are unable to buy a home.

This also comes at a time when 1.6 million Brits will be coming to an end of their fixed-rate mortgages at the end of the year, with many unable to afford to remortgage – piling pressure on a dwindling rental market and pushing up rental prices, as demand outstrips supply.

The rental market has seen an exodus of landlords at a time when properties are in huge demand.

However, despite the demand, it has become less profitable for buy-to-let landlords to rent out a property.

This comes as soaring mortgage prices are now forcing landlords to push up rental costs to cover their mortgage repayments, alongside the planned introduction of the government’s costly new EPC targets, which will force landlords to upgrade the energy efficiency of their buy-to-let properties to a rating of ‘C’ within 5 years.

This is set to come at a considerable cost or Landlords willface fines of up to £30,000.

Data from Cornerstone Tax 2020 found that only 20% of landlords in the UK now say their investment has been a successful one.

Source: Property Notify

Entering a New Age of Urban Workspaces

Surging interest rates and transforming business paradigms have brought traditional office spaces to a pivotal crossroads – an industry once valued for its towering structures of glass and steel, the sector must now chart a course through new, choppy water.

Properties acquired or financed through substantial debt have been left burdened by bloated loan repayments.

Meanwhile, exacerbating the situation, the recent evolution observed in working culture has led to shorter leases and occupancy rates in traditional office buildings plunging to decade-lows, sowing doubt in the sector’s stability and thus triggering significant devaluations across the traditional office space landscape.

Although these circumstances are certainly unfavourable, landlords and asset managers who own traditional offices can still bounce back.

Through thoughtful evolution, in other words creating greater harmony with progressive work patterns and ideals, workspaces can be prepped for longevity as fundamental pillars of the business world far into the future.

To achieve this, however, we must examine what the urban workspace of tomorrow will entail, and how conventional office models can integrate into this transformation.

A changing professional landscape

Working patterns were changing before we had ever heard of Covid-19. Flexible workspaces were already on the rise, while more and more employers were embracing flexible working to attract and retain the best talent. But the pandemic undoubtedly kicked this trend into overdrive.

Lockdowns propelled the widespread adoption of hybrid and remote working as many workers took steps to reprioritise their work-life balance. When we could finally return to the office, soaring inflation and cost-of-living crises raised commuting expenses, creating additional barriers for city-based employees to frequent the office.

Meanwhile, this challenging economic period has led to many businesses gleaning valuable insights about the benefits of flexibility.

This, coupled with the surge in hybrid working arrangements, spurred a wave of demand for office solutions with greater flexibility, resulting in record-high occupancy rates for flexible workspaces at 83%.

Within just three years a cultural revolution has been enacted, becoming deeply embedded in work culture as well as a pivotal factor in shaping the workspaces of the future.

Future-proofing our workspaces

Clearly, a new vision for workspaces must be forged, one that is seamlessly woven into the tapestry of modern life. To hit the mark and maintain relevancy, future workspaces must meet three key criteria: be appealing; be conveniently accessible; and facilitate a seamless transition between professional and personal spheres.

Enter the concept of the “15-minute city”. This asserts that within a 15-minute radius from their residence, an individual should be able to conveniently access essential amenities, workspaces, and leisure facilities. Namely, this would be achieved through a blend of mixed-use developments, where people can seamlessly move between their professional and personal lives.

Envisage, for example, a mixed-use skyscraper. On the lower floors a shopping and leisure complex could be found, on the middle floors a range of flexible workspaces, and finally upper floors could offer residential flats for contemporary living. Such a development is more than an idea: it creates a ‘future of work’ framework that could benefit landlords and tenants alike.

Such buildings are increasingly common, at least as far as the addition of retail or leisure units to residential blocks is concerned. But throwing flexible workspaces into the mix would now satisfy modern demands for how, when and where people want to work.

The repurposing and retrofitting of conventional office spaces into vibrant hubs for communal and professional interaction would be the ideal way to achieve this, attracting tenants and bolstering occupancy rates for landlords. Indeed, with environmental concerns mounting, embracing lower carbon-emitting development solutions like retrofitting becomes increasingly imperative.

Importantly, this is no one-time change; these workspaces must be equipped for continued evolution. We’ve observed working patterns pivot rapidly, and so workspaces must be optimally redesigned for adaptability. Refitting some traditional offices as flexible workspaces, where occupancy rates have increased considerably, is one way landlords can respond.

Such a strategy enables landlords to react swiftly to the changing demands of prospective occupants over time, creating lasting appeal and therefore enhancing the longevity of occupancy.

Understandably, such a transformation may seem challenging for some landlords. However, it can be achieved seamlessly by partnering with a third-party flexible workspace provider, which can take on tenant acquisition, operations and implement infrastructure.

Crucially, this approach enables commercial landlords to keep abreast of rapid transformation in the modern workforce, from emerging office trends to the latest in workspace technology.

A new age for offices

Ultimately, forming the urban workspaces of the future means creating spaces that can optimally adapt to emerging professional needs. Without evolution, traditional office models risk becoming obsolete.

Spaces must become flexible, attractive, and accessible, and concepts like the ’15-minute city’ will therefore form the bedrock upon which workspaces of the future will thrive.

Developing these future-proof, flexible workspaces will take effort, but flex space providers are at hand to ease this transition.

As a new working culture emerges, workspaces must be thoughtfully designed to guide us through this transition into the future of work.

Source: Property Notify

Improved UK Housing Affordability Offers Hope for Young Buyers

The UK housing market has witnessed an improvement in affordability for young buyers due to rising wages, partially leading to a decrease in property prices.

According to mortgage lender Halifax, the house price-to-income ratio decreased from 7.3 times average earnings in 2022 to 6.7 in the second quarter of 2023.

This stands as the most substantial year-on-year enhancement in affordability for the month of June since 2009.

The drop in property prices has been attributed to the Bank of England’s 14th consecutive interest rate hike, bringing rates to 5.25% – the highest level in 15 years.

These actions have had a cooling effect on the housing market after the surge in activity post-pandemic.

David Hannah, Chairman at Cornerstone Group International argues that for first-time buyers with the means to invest in property, now presents an opportune moment, given that the average UK property is currently valued at £260,828 – 0.2% lower than in June and 4.5% below the average price recorded in August 2022.

However, even though property prices are now more within reach for first-time buyers, certain affluent areas like London and the South East remain less affordable, with prices still notably surpassing average earnings.

Additionally, mortgage costs have experienced a significant surge, with typical monthly repayments increasing by over £200 in the past year and constituting 35% of income in Q2 2023.

Discussing the effect of rising rates on the property market, Hannah said:

“The predictable downward trend in house prices comes as no surprise, given the lingering effects of rate uncertainty and affordability challenges in the market.

Prospective buyers are still caught between adopting a cautious approach and displaying heightened assertiveness while making property offers.

Nevertheless, there is a glimmer of hope as certain lenders are reducing mortgage expenses in response to the approaching peak of the bank rate.

This suggests that although market sentiment may remain restrained, I hold the belief that the second half of this year will witness an improvement.”

Source: Property Notify

Why We Need A Reasoned Approach to Green Belt Release

Keir Starmer’s announcement about building on the Green Belt attracted some contentious headlines.

It immediately thrust housing and planning into the centre of the political battlefield.

Labour and the Conservatives have their battlelines firmly drawn up, with the NIMBYs on one side and the YIMBYs on the other.

A sensible discussion on the Green Belt is long overdue.

But can it remain sensible in this febrile environment?

We must move away from images of ‘concreting all over the Green Belt’. The idea that housing developments are primarily ‘grey’ may been true of post-war development when the Green Belt was introduced, but is not today.

As a result of changes in approaches to development today, new communities have the potential to be attractive, primarily ‘green’ spaces which significantly boost both the aesthetic and biodiverse qualities of the land.

Furthermore, we must look again at the definition of the Green Belt.

As Starmer quite accurately pointed out, much of it isn’t even green: contrary to a widely-held belief that the Green Belt is a bucolic ring of verdant countryside open to all, much of it is inaccessible and/or preserves and protects unattractive edge-of-settlement brownfield sites – those which have potential for sustainable development.

We have seen so many changes since the Green Belt was first introduced, including the New Towns programmes of the 1960s and 1970s – places like Milton Keynes, Basingstoke and Crawley were villages when the Green Belt was first introduced.

It is therefore imperative that the Green Belt is reviewed in order to deliver enough homes in the right places and protect land that deserves to be protected.

But because development is so sensitive, so complex and has so much scope for subjectivity, a review of the Green Belt can only be delivered though a national or at least a strategic regional plan, led by the Department for Levelling Up, Housing & Communities.

The Green Belt began as a national policy and must remain as such.

The controversy surrounding Starmer’s speech raises the question, is Green Belt release the only way in which we can increase housing supply?

My answer is that it is the only way in which housing numbers can be increased at scale: building 300,000 houses on the Isle of Wight could achieve this, and while popular with many, wouldn’t address the need for people to be located either close to economic centres or in close proximity to sustainable transport.

Adapting the Green Belt which surrounds Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire, on the other hand, could achieve this.

It is important to note that a review of the Green Belt does not necessary mean a reduction in the Green Belt, which is how it is often presented.

It means that that areas worthy of protection are included and those – such as the car park that Keir Starmer referred to in his speech – are potentially repurposed, and quite possibly in such a way that increases their aesthetic value.

To gain political and public support, the Green Belt needs to be reframed on the basis of expansion.

Since 1955 when the Green Belt was introduced, the UK population has grown from 51,063,902 to 68,497,907. The housing crisis demonstrates a desperate need for sustainable new settlements and we have adequate measures, such as AONB and conservation area status, in place to ensure that this is done sensitively.

We need to move away from the idea that there’s something intrinsically unattractive about development: twenty well designed houses, in sympathetic landscaped surroundings can benefit the natural environment, rather than detract from it.

I believe that Keir Starmer is very much on the right track in accepting that the Green Belt must be reviewed to address the housing crisis.

I believe it is possible to expand the Green Belt overall, while also delivering more homes.

But a strategic approach is the only way in which this can be achieved.

Source: Property Notify

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